The Aschenbrenner Pivot
In Q1 2026, Situational Awareness LP — the fund built on the AGI infrastructure thesis — executed the most consequential portfolio pivot of the AI cycle. Gross notional expanded 148% in 90 days, from $5.52B to $13.68B. The book flipped net short: 62% short the semiconductor stack — NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MU, TSM, ASML, INTC — while remaining structurally long AI infrastructure.
This is not a bet against AI. It is a bet that the market has overpriced the hardware layer relative to the infrastructure and application layers. PMDI's Smart Money Rotation rule monitors for the prediction market signature of the same thesis: individual AI company sentiment diverging from the intact supercycle narrative.
Signal logic: trend derived from 7-day average confidence · divergence = entity negative while AI infrastructure aggregate positive · Kalshi and Polymarket sources · Updates every 5 minutes