Context Changes the Signal
Prediction market anomalies don't exist in isolation. When multiple unrelated domains — Corporate, Geopolitical, Macro, Legal — show simultaneous elevated activity, it indicates structural market stress that amplifies the significance of any individual signal. When everything is quiet, a lone anomaly becomes the loudest signal in the room.
PMDI's macro context layer scores the current environment against four states: Elevated (broad multi-domain stress), Active (normal elevated environment), Quiet (low noise floor — individual signals carry outsized weight), and Silent (near-zero activity — verify data quality before acting).
Thresholds: Elevated ≥20 signals/24h · Active ≥8 · Quiet ≥2 · Silent <2 · Multi-domain convergence requires 3+ active domains simultaneously · Confidence threshold >0 (all non-zero annotations) · Updates every 5 minutes