The national numbers above are two contracts. The real texture is underneath them — Kalshi also prices individual state Senate races and competitive House districts, each a separate contract with its own day-over-day movement. PredictIntel tracks all of it daily, including which races are trending toward a flip and which just crossed the 50% mark.
Four real Kalshi ticker families feed this page: national House control
(CONTROLH-2026), national Senate control (CONTROLS-2026),
state-level Senate control (SENATE{state}-26), and district-level House
control (KXHOUSERACE-{state}{district}-26). Primary-nomination markets (who
wins a party's primary, not who wins the general election) are explicitly excluded.
Source: Kalshi, market-implied probability · Updated daily · Not a forecast